It is similar to the crisis in Rome during the reign of Nero, and to the crisis in the U.S.S.R. at the beginning of the 1990s, and to hundreds of similar crises which have passed, are passing, and will pass into history with the appearance of the third-generation elite in combination with strengthening the hysteroidal personality traits in workers and the economically active population, and when it is not possible for this elite to manage the system of socioeconomic contradictions by understanding the essence of what is taking place and adopting preemptive decisions. The defensive reactions of the elite or those who imitate them become an impediment on the path of responsible reforms. This is further exacerbated by the fact that upon departing from the historical stage, the third-generation elite is not in a condition to change its psychotype in the immediate situation and capture the leadership from the resonators or simply from sensibly thinking people.

This is one of the reasons that the successful elite should know how to change its psychotype to its opposite, in a pendular way. This is necessary for following oscillatory changes of the population’s psychotype and successfully managing them also through psychological mechanisms and through personal example, and not simply through reasoning or military strength. Since, when the psychotype of the elite does not “click” with the psychotype of the basic mass of the populace, the elite is simply dethroned. Naturally this process is preceded by that of the elite losing their usefulness for the people and their control over surplus production and financial flows.

In crises of this type the role of the hysteroid personality increases sharply. This manifests itself in multiple facets.

First, in changing the motivational base of making decisions from the main subjects of economic activity (excluding resonators). The motives of economic behavior become more short-term. The role and significance of the emotional component grows. The irrational component in motivation grows.

Second, the growth of defensive reactions when making decisions. People to a smaller degree than usual begin to go along with the arguments not of dispassionate contemplation, but emotional impulses, the impulses of the unconscious.

Third, as a rise in contradictions between the conscious and unconscious, which makes people’s behavior illogical and complicates managing them by means that usually provide a good effect in a relaxed atmosphere. In this way it is a stressful situation – it is not clear what specific people’s reactions will be. Hence, beyond the framework of a given crisis, the assessment of the measures taken from today’s point of view may radically depart from that offered by participants of the given process.

Fourth, managing people typically requires emotional intervention, psychotherapeutic methods on the government scale. In this regard, the management decisions and behavior of Franklin Roosevelt during the crisis do not seem illogical at all. He would have needed to manage hysterical people with appropriate methods.

Roosevelt found himself in a situation in which exiting the crisis would have been without the support of the soundly thinking elite. This is a fact that Franklin Roosevelt himself acknowledges, speaking directly to the nation and blaming the Washington advisers for their incompetence. But this his adversaries would also admit in describing the atmosphere that had formed in government institutions and Roosevelt’s retinue. Could anything really have been done with the hysterical elite? And Roosevelt did about as much as he could. He prevented the bloodshed that had previously accompanied the shift of the third-generation elite. But he could not stop the elite from making sometimes unthinking decisions. Thus, the destruction of food products at a time when people were hungry was clearly an illogical step, aimed at average Americans, while protecting the interests of merchant princes and the banks that gave them credit. And Roosevelt talks about this frankly.

The elite did everything the way the third-generation elite had done for centuries before this. It did not change its psychotype, it did not increase production efficiency, but rather increased the degree to which it exploited its subjects. And the elite made a decision to eliminate food products. This decision came to fruition not during Roosevelt’s rise to power, but under Herbert Hoover. Roosevelt could not do anything about this. But he did the main thing – he did not allow bloodshed and created the conditions for a new elite to transition to power gradually. Ultimately, here the war “helped”. Authority at the beginning of the crisis of 1929-1933 was with the elite, the Federal Reserve, the bankers and the wholesale merchants. This power remained with them after the crisis, but more realistic people came into power. And some knew how to become more moderate after what had happened. A certain part of the elite was able to change its psychotype. In the period after World War II, the U.S. was already being managed by the first-generation elite.

Thus, the events of 1929-1939 can function as a source of our knowledge about the behavior of people during a crisis. Roosevelt’s decisions at that moment had not only an economic nature, but also a psychological and even psychiatric character. The crisis itself, the Depression, if we rely upon objective indicators, continued in the U.S. from 1929 through 1939.

In the history of humanity, psychoeconomic crises have arisen and been subdued spontaneously, due to exogenous factors, and this has always been related to stress factors.

Currently there are necessary scientific prerequisites for a more conscious role of regulators in surmounting psychoeconomic crises. The psychotypes of the elite, of the economically and politically active population change cyclically. The psychotypes in the elite and the economically and politically active population that have changed introduce not only other character traits into the system of socioeconomic relationships, they also introduce another system of motivation, value, other needs, another culture. Precisely those behavioral motives that have changed direct the activity of the main participants of the socioeconomic process, the main subjects of economic activity, to attain other values than they would have previously. In a period when the values of the hysteroid type dominate in society, they direct their efforts toward self-affirmation through ownership of new, large and prestigious homes, flashy cars, and trendy things… They savor their prestigious position, the availability of private airplanes, yachts, expensive watches, tennis courts etc. The list is endless. And here’s the important thing. Ownership of stock, playing the market, and bank accounts in unlimited quantities – the more accounts, the more prestigious – now end up on this endless list of the actualized needs of the hysteroids and post-postresonators. Other people somehow pale into insignificance relative to these values. This is a peculiarity of people with hysteroid traits, their need to display their Ego is more pronounced, the “by myself” metaprogram is more manifest. These values combine with less marked organizational capabilities. The need to control an endless list of objects of prestige, but more importantly, the symbols of prestige, owning shares of large companies that are completely unscrupulous about emotionally changing their costs – so that there is plenty to talk about in the ritziest salons – all this forms an endless need for money. And as always in history, this psychotype and all its imitators begin not to gain this money through hard administrative work, but by taking a cut from everyone who will consent. “Clipping” is easier for those who are toward the bottom of the ladder of prestige, of their professional or social position. It is precisely these whose profits are reduced during a period when the post-postresonators are dominant. Social separation grows in the society. And even if the government and regulators, seeing a pre-revolutionary situation, find the means to keep the people from losing their shirts, the money accumulates again by various means, sometimes subtly and shiftily, in the circulation of the values that are dominating in the society. Therefore the degree of social stratification in the society cyclically changes with the rotation of the psychotypes in the elite.

The laws of economics in a society where values of the hysteroid type reign supreme become different from what they were decades ago. The economic laws discovered at some point of social development metamorphose, transform along with the change in people.

There is reason to believe that knowing why psychoeconomic crises arise can improve the possibility of managing this process to a greater degree than before. In our set of measures for overcoming a crisis we should include those about the change of psychotypes of the economically active population and elite.

Summary of the Chapter

The economic and historical development of mankind is not only an accumulation of material assets, but also a change in people’s culture. One of the most important moments of these changes is the change in the system of dynamic stereotypes, the psychotypes of a population, in the economically active population, the elites. These changes are regular, and related to the degree of psychological and social compatibility of the different psychotypes in the course of life of several generations. The most unfavorable outcome, post-postresonators in the elite and the economically active population, leads to psychoeconomic crises of special depth. The majority of the world’s countries are now living through this crisis.

References

Reich, Robert B. Aftershock: The Economy of the Future. Moscow, Career Press. 2012, p.193.

Konyukhov, N.I., Arkhipova, O.N., Konyukhova, E.N. Pyschoeconomics. 2nd edition. Мoscow, 2012. 540p.

Chapter 3. Globalization as a process of synchronizing the psychoeconomic changes in the world

It is important to evaluate the measures any country takes to optimize economic and social development against the processes on which the effectiveness of those measures depends. This above all means understanding the place of a given country in the international division of labor and the effect of globalization on the country’s development.

Globalization is a fact of life in the modern world, and involves the synchronization of many economic, social, psychological, technological and other factors. This introduces qualitative changes in the development of the contemporary world, including psychoeconomic events.

3.1 Synchronization of psychoeconomic phenomena in the contemporary world and its reflection in economic indicators

Carl Jung expressed an unusual idea for his time, namely that the psychotype, or drives that oppose conscious drives, forms within the unconscious. But over time, the unconscious and the conscious exchange places. Subsequent research has shown that this idea needs some restatement, namely, that drives form in the unconscious that are opposed to conscious drives, especially if the conscious drives are not reliable. Yes, that’s how we’re arranged.

Our unconscious senses the incorrectness, the imprecision, the one-sidedness of the conclusions reached by consciousness, and it builds up a need to make these conclusions precise, including by denying their opposite. In its own way, this mechanism is rational, and at times it is astonishing in its precision, prognostic ability, and accuracy. The fact is, our consciousness is single-plane and factorial. By and large the determinants of socioeconomic development have a heterogeneous, multifactorial, and cumulative nature. Some microfactors have a tendency to escalate into factorial, leading causes, so it is periodically necessary to change opinions, outlooks, and mindsets. This change is cyclical and tied closely to solar activity. The mechanism that opens and closes nerve cells works better precisely at times of increased solar activity, and this is valid for everyone. Therefore, during periods of economic globalization we also get harmonic curves of change across very different economic indicators.

In a period of increased solar activity, human thought and the thoughts of market players change more often. At times, this takes the form of projection in regard to understanding the factors of economic development, while at others, it takes the form of a sharp shift in management decisions, namely those that can affect the condition of the market.

Therefore it is not accidental that the rate of change in the value of a market basket of consumer goods rises and falls or that the price of housing relative to the price of gold grows then declines, etc. At some point, it becomes clear that the value of the market basket is such that you have to produce more goods from this basket and to obtain higher than average profit in market terms. But as time passes, it turns out that the normal profit for production of goods from the basket of consumer goods has dropped below a psychologically justified level. Once more the opinion forms that it is better to obtain a profit in the financial sphere, in the stock market, in the area of trade etc. All of this is established based on economic calculations… However, before the beginning of high solar activity, less attention is at times paid to this, in view of the rigidity of reasoning and inadequately active functioning of the open-close mechanism of nervous impulses.

There are other periods of pendulous swings of opinion among the agents of economic activity. These periods are smaller than the period between the peaks of solar radiation. Large, global periods of change in opinion co-exist with the oscillating change of opinion for minimal time intervals – months, weeks, days, hours, minutes… The more indefinite the condition of the market, the smaller the time intervals in which changing occurs from one type of decision to the opposite one.

What do we make of this? This is indeed what actually happens on the world market, in the stock market, in the world economy. Our economic drives are realized in hundreds or thousands or even millions of buying and selling transactions. So as a result these economic decisions of the mass of individuals and companies become sinusoidal, cyclical… First one factor (or a group of factors of the same type) becomes absolute when decisions are made, then another one does.

And this is not only in the economy. Fashion, science, and art function the same way. At points of high solar activity we become more inclined to change our position and our opinions. And we change them toward the relative opposites. Everything is according to the laws of the relationship of the conscious and unconscious, according to Jung. That’s how we’re built. This is a deeply reinforcing device that compels us to understand the truth even in spite of our will, by directing our consciousness toward one factor, then to its opposite.

Gradually, after we have sorted out these factors, we obtain a more comprehensive picture of the market’s development, of socioeconomic processes, and of the world as a whole, getting closer and closer to the truth with each new historical stage of development. It is as though we are being compelled to acknowledge the truth, the necessary psychological prerequisites for this are being created.

Regarding the processes of economic globalization, in connection with the formation of a single market, these processes become more and more coordinated on a global scale.

Cyclically repeating economic dependencies reflect the intentions of the people making decisions. Thus, the relationship of the price of gold to securities reflects the relationship of the intentions of the domain experts and social motivators in deciding whether to buy stock or gold. At the same time, this is a relationship of the intentions of kinesthetic and auditory types, of people with a developed “total” or “partial” metaprogram, of those inclined toward metamodeling or Milton modeling, people with hysteroid traits (peak share price) versus paranoid traits (who tend to choose gold a little more often), etc. Moreover, each psychotype, each metaprogram that is present to one degree or another in the agents of economic activity, oscillates somewhat, but in the aggregate these micro changes, these “somewhat” give the effect of reconsideration of the decisions of market participants, which are flex points of price changes. These “negligible” oscillations by many over a certain time interval in their majority predetermine the market’s “U-turn”.

A hardly perceptible, and at times simply imperceptible change of the agents of economic activity in terms of all the metaprograms, accentuations, and psychotypes that have been examined before goes unnoticed by its participants. But in the aggregate, according to the degree of growth of these cumulative causes, we see the result, namely a change in the trendline. And only after this change has occurred does consciousness look around for the causes of this phenomenon.

And before it can reach extreme values, some psychological indicator (value, accentuation, personality trait, metaprogram, etc.) passes through an oscillatory correction, and sometimes a real change, in a specific person or in a group of people. That is, the swings exist within the cycles designated on the graph. They are universal. Behind these swings stands an oscillating change of consciousness and even the culture of the subject of economic activity in the widest sense of this word. That’s how people are constructed.